Weekly Analysis
Briefing notes and
analysis pieces.
Written by contributors across our international network.
Analysis
Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
1 September 2026
The Illusion of Milestone: How International Actors Are Underwriting South Sudan's Fragile Election
As South Sudan's December 2026 election approaches, regional and international actors are treating the vote itself as evidence of democratic progress — even as the institutional, security and political conditions required by the 2018 peace agreement requires remain incomplete. This piece argues that "milestone" diplomacy risks legitimising an elite settlement rather than testing it and asks what this reveals about how fragile-state transitions are managed from abroad.
Butros Nicola Bazia
Read →Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
1 September 2026
The Illusion of Milestone: How International Actors Are Underwriting South Sudan's Fragile Election
As South Sudan's December 2026 election approaches, regional and international actors are treating the vote itself as evidence of democratic progress — even as the institutional, security and political conditions required by the 2018 peace agreement requires remain incomplete. This piece argues that "milestone" diplomacy risks legitimising an elite settlement rather than testing it and asks what this reveals about how fragile-state transitions are managed from abroad.
Butros Nicola Bazia
Read →Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
13 August 2026
The Sahelian Drone Proliferation: How Low-Cost Aerial Tech Is Reshaping Conflict in the Sahel
The spread of inexpensive aerial technology has changed how conflict is conducted in the central Sahel without changing its underlying causes.
Selamawit Getachew Amare
Read →Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
13 August 2026
The Sahelian Drone Proliferation: How Low-Cost Aerial Tech Is Reshaping Conflict in the Sahel
The spread of inexpensive aerial technology has changed how conflict is conducted in the central Sahel without changing its underlying causes.
Selamawit Getachew Amare
Read →Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
10 July 2026
Strategic Competition and the Emergence of Maximalism in Africa
What happens when African political actors can pick and choose their patrons? An examination of how intensifying strategic competition — from the Sahel to Sudan to the Great Lakes — is pushing states and insurgents alike toward maximalist positions.
Mahder Nesibu
Read →Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
10 July 2026
Strategic Competition and the Emergence of Maximalism in Africa
What happens when African political actors can pick and choose their patrons? An examination of how intensifying strategic competition — from the Sahel to Sudan to the Great Lakes — is pushing states and insurgents alike toward maximalist positions.
Mahder Nesibu
Read →Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
28 July 2026
Sovereignty Under Scrutiny: Zimbabwe and the Limits of Regional Accountability in Southern Africa
Zimbabwe exposes a structural tension at the centre of Southern African regional governance.
Ngonidzashe Walter Karasambudzi
Read →Analysis — Sub-Saharan Africa
28 July 2026
Sovereignty Under Scrutiny: Zimbabwe and the Limits of Regional Accountability in Southern Africa
Zimbabwe exposes a structural tension at the centre of Southern African regional governance.
Ngonidzashe Walter Karasambudzi
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