Weekly Briefing | Southeast Asia

Just after Thailand rolled out the red carpet for Myanmar’s President Min Aung Hlaing, the disputes erupt on their eastern border with neighbouring Cambodia. As a poll of ASEAN member state civilians, more than 40% expressed extreme concern of the Thai-Cambodia border conflict, which has been reignited with a recent OHCHR report from the United Nations. Tom Andrew’s functions as the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Cambodia and recently released a report detailing tensions and institutionalised aggression of Thai soldiers against Cambodian refugees – something the Thai government immediately denied. This led to a further increase in tensions against the Cambodian government, but more notably, the UN. As Cambodia preps for elections next year, the  centralization of power and stability of regional partnerships is a growing concern of many who have not gone to the polls since the last Commune and Sangkat council elections in 2022.  

This shift in geopolitical engagement between nations and international bodies has been slow and steady, but dependable in its decrease. The lack of accountability and recognition to the faux President of Myanmar being welcomed in Thailand was not the strongest move for ASEAN, although possibly benefiting Thailand themselves. As many international bodies called for the December 2025 elections in Myanmar to be disputed and the lack of legitimacy to the results, this marks the first formal recognition of Min Aung Hlaing as President rather than the Commander-in-Chief of the Tatmadaw.

Within the region, not all issues are man-made. August 15th, Indonesia was hit with a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Flores, leaving affected survivors heavily dependent on aid and international relief. As this specific 7.7 magnitude builds upon the collective memory of many Indonesians, it takes them back to the 1992 quake and following tsunami that killed almost 2,500. This scale of climate induced disasters has sparked more conversation and expectation of ASEAN member states following the recent adoption of the ASEAN Strategic Protocol for Emergency and Comprehensive Transformation (ASPECT) Framework, which has yet to be implemented. The complexity of inter-region engagement and disaster response somehow shows a sign of hope for ASEAN partnerships under the Philippines leadership this year. As immediate clashes make their impact, regional unity and stability remains key and actors work to absorb any tremors rather than react.